Snowstorm Changes and Their Impact on Power Outages over the Northeast - Phase I

Background:

Cold-season snowstorms in the Northeast U.S. often cause power outages, posing risks for those reliant on electricity for heating. Rising temperatures from climate change are expected to shift some snowstorms to rain events, altering storm patterns and their impacts. Recent studies highlight that snowstorms occurring at temperatures between 0–2°C, particularly in coastal areas, have the highest impact on outages. However, how snowstorms have changed since the 1950s and how they will evolve in the 21st century remains unclear, making further research critical for utility companies to improve preparedness.  

Industry Need: 

Electric utilities need a better understanding of how climate change affects winter storms and power outages. There is a lack of data on changes in storm frequency, intensity, and duration, making it difficult to plan for future disruptions. Addressing these knowledge gaps will help improve resilience strategies and outage response planning.  

Objectives: 

This project aims to quantify and analyze historical and future snowstorm changes in the Northeast while modeling their impact on power outages. Led by UAlbany and UConn, the research seeks to enhance understanding of snowstorm evolution, improve outage prediction models, and refine climate-based forecasting methods. By incorporating historical and future weather data, the study will help utility companies better anticipate and mitigate storm-related outages.  

Methodology:  

The research will analyze historical snowstorm patterns using ERA5 reanalysis data, focusing on changes in storm frequency, intensity, and precipitation. Machine learning models will be trained to predict power outages based on historical weather data. Future climate projections will be used to estimate how snowstorms and outages may change over time. The first year will focus on historical analysis and model training, while the second year will apply these models to future climate scenarios.  

Deliverables: 

This project will provide insights into historical and future snowstorm trends and their impact on power outages. A trained outage prediction model will enhance forecasting capabilities, helping utilities prepare for winter storm disruptions. The findings will improve outage modeling and provide critical data for planning under a changing climate.