Risk Assessment Indexes for Peak Loads Under Extreme Heat and Electrification States

Industrial Relevance & Need:

Utilities are increasingly exposed to demand increases, whether sudden present time or gradual long-term. This is more evident in the Northeast and Western coast regions of the US due to aggressive electrification policies and sensitivity of the coastlines to a changing climate. This presents the need to anticipate risks in managing peak loads across the spectrum of transmission and distribution based on the high probability of reaching the installed capacity due to extreme weather events and/or base loads.

Project Goals:

• Develop and validate a methodology for peak load projections by combining historical and future weather and loads based on baseline, weather dependent loads, and climate signals. 

• Develop climatologies of heat wave and peak loads trends at ISOs Zone levels in the Northeast from 2010-2058, and at substations levels. 

• Develop risk levels indexes (color coded) at sub-station levels based on extreme heat waves and peak load thresholds from nominal capacities based on climate and load records. 

• Updated risk levels from climate signals at sub-stations to account for projected electrification loads such as EVs and buildings. 

• Develop user friendly dashboards to access the information by utility managers and planners at Utility, Zone and substation levels over the timeframe of 2010-2058 hourly based, or event based.