Assessment of the impact of compound extreme weather events on grid priorities based on historical high-resolution reanalysis data: heatwaves and wind droughts

Industrial Relevance & Need:

Heatwaves in 50 major U.S. metropolitan areas have surged from an average of just two per year in the 1960s to over six per year in the 2010s and early 2020s (NOAA, 2024). Not only are heatwaves becoming more frequent, but their duration and seasonal extent are also increasing heat stress on densely populated regions (NOAA, 2024; Fig. 1). Heatwaves decrease the efficiency of electricity flow, making natural gas turbines and solar panels less effective at precisely the time when energy demand spikes due to increased air conditioning use (PNNL, 2024; Abel et al., 2018; Shen, 2017). When coupled with low wind power generation (prolonged periods of low wind referred to as wind droughts; Antonini et al. 2024), heatwaves significantly heighten the risk of indoor overheating, threatening both public health and energy security. It is imperative to reliably assess the impact of compound heatwave-wind drought impacts on grid reliability, referring to the co-occurrence of heatwaves over land and low winds over wind farms currently operating in the US (Fig.1). The first step towards this assessment is to understand the historical co-occurrences of these compound extremes and the extent of their impact on the power grid (i.e. power shortages, power outages). By doing so, we will be able to better inform, for the first time, the industry stakeholders about the frequency and intensity of these compound events in the past 42 years and assess the need to evaluate their change in a future climate. 

Project Goals:

Our goal is to provide stakeholders with a detailed analysis of past co-occurrences of heatwaves in urban areas (increase of energy demand) and wind droughts in utility-scale wind farm areas (decrease of wind power production) as they relate to power grid disruptions.